UFC 109: Relentless - BreakDown, Betting Odds & Predictions
Written by Mike Hammersmith   
Saturday, 23 January 2010 17:28
ufc-109-breakdown

It's not often that a fight is postponed for twelve years, but the main event of UFC 109: Relentless is the same main event as UFC 17: Redemption. Back in 1998, Then Heavyweight Champion Randy "The Natural" Couture, was to take on the Former Champion Mark "The Hammer" Coleman, when an injury forced the event to be scrapped. Now, when both men are in the twilight of their careers, they'll be facing off in a surprisingly competitive match-up. While both men have lost a step, they're still dangerous fighters at the Light Heavyweight division, and a fight between the two could be just what they need to go out on a high note. Also on the card, in a fight that will determine contendership for the Middleweight crown, Nate "The Great" Marquardt will fight the uncrowned WEC Middleweight king, Chael Sonnen. Marquardt has been crushing the competition at Middleweight for some time, in a bid to get to the top of the division and rematch Anderson Silva, but Sonnen has been on the rise himself with two high-profile wins. With Dan Henderson removing himself from the title picture, it makes perfect sense for these two to fight and see who gets the shot at the title once Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort meet. Finally, Former Champion Matt "The Terror" Serra will face Former Title Challenger Frank "Twinkle Toes" Trigg in another competitive match between old hands in the division. Trigg came up short in his return bout against Josh Koscheck, but in Serra, finds an opponent much more manageable on paper. Serra is coming back from a decision loss to Matt Hughes, and after dropping two in a row, will need a win here to stay afloat in the Welterweight division. This, plus a pair of special preliminary bouts on Spike, and the rest of the main card and undercard action await us. So, pull up the chair and read up on the upcoming fights, put some savvy wagers down with the aid of my betting odds, and try to etch your name on the MMA fantasy leader boards with my fantasy picks. Now, onto the fights!

randy-couture-2Randy "The Natural" Couture vs. Mark "The Hammer" Coleman: In the first ever bout between two UFC Hall of Famers, Randy "The Natural" Couture will face off against Mark "The Hammer" Coleman, in a bout for the ages. This may be the best set of wrestling credentials to ever step into the octagon at once, as both men are Olympians with multiple college and high school honors, and each brings a distinct style to the cage in their MMA wrestling. Coleman, brings one of the most unstoppable double leg takedowns in the business, and will almost surely put Couture on his back within the first minute of the fight, but from there, anything could happen. It's no secret that Coleman fights with too much emotion, and at his advanced age, doesn't have the cardio to fight at a strong clip through the entire fight. This will be Couture's opening to take this fight, as he'll need to avoid getting sucked into Coleman's ground game, and work his own impressive boxing game to keep Coleman at bay. Over time, Coleman will wilt, and Couture should be able to decisively take at least two rounds in this one to come out on top on the score cards.

Betting Odds:

Randy Couture -150
Mark Coleman +120


Although the sportbooks will have this at a much wider margin, this a closer fight than people think. For one thing, Couture isn't a strong finisher, and every time Coleman shoots, he runs the risk of being on the bottom and losing valuable time to score points with the judges, as well as allowing Coleman to recharge his batteries. While neither fighter is going to finish this one, the decision hinges on who can use their wrestling and striking skills to control the bout, and the idea Coleman can land enough takedowns to steal two rounds from The Natural isn't outside the realm of possibilities. If you can find props to take Coleman by decision at long odds, it's certainly worth a bet.

Fantasy Pick: Randy Couture via Decision

Overall, Couture should have this under control with his superior skill-sets, the advantage to having trained Coleman previously, and the well-documented cardio regime of The Natural. A finish is possible late in the fight, but very unlikely given the game plans of both men, so take Couture via decision for maximum points.

natemarquardtNate "The Great" Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen: With title implications on the line, you know both guys are going to be looking to make statements with this fight, and it brings up interesting situations in the cage. Marquardt is one of the most well-rounded fighters on the planet, with a versatile submission game, impeccable submission defense, endless cardio, and devastating striking power to round out his game. Conversely, Sonnen isn't known for anything other than wrestling, but that's all he's generally needed in his fights. His takedowns and plodding pace from top make him very difficult to deal with in the cage, and while it hasn't made him a fan favorite by a long shot, it has allowed him to out-point impressive fighters in the past. With Sonnen's game plan etched in stone, this will be up to Marquardt and Greg Jackson to create situations where Marquardt can avoid the black hole of Sonnen's top game, and find a way to win.

Betting Odds:

Nate Marquardt -150
Chael Sonnen +120


Once again, sportbooks will have this as being a lot wider than I do, but Sonnen has been a huge underdog in every fight he's had in the UFC. While his game isn't complete, his wrestling is so suffocating that it allows him to bypass his opponent's strengths and force them to fight from bottom, where they might not have a chance of success. Marquardt's bottom game hasn't seen the light of day in some time, mostly because his top-positional grappling is so strong, and his ability to stop Sonnen and implement his own game plan will be of the utmost importance to win. Like Coleman, finding props on Sonnen to win by decision would be an investment worth seeking out.

Fantasy Pick: Nate Marquardt via Decision

With someone of Marquardt's skill level, a finish can come from anywhere, and Sonnen brings in the ability to draw any fight into deep waters, and fights at a pace that doesn't allow his opponent to get many opportunities to finish. While a finish is possible for the heavy-handed Marquardt, I think it more likely that he gets the best of a few takedowns, works conservative striking and beats Sonnen at his own game, out-pointing him for a win.

serraMatt "The Terror" Serra vs. Frank "Twinkle Toes" Trigg: Veteran UFC fighters collide in this bout, as Former Welterweight Champion Matt "The Terror" Serra will face former Welterweight title challenger and Icon Middleweight Champion Frank "Twinkle Toes" Trigg, in a bout to stay relevant in the division. While it's doubtful either man will ever reach the top of the division like in their glory days, this is still a decent fight for each man, as it will allow them to showcase their long-honed skills and give them a chance to work against some younger talent following this. Serra brings in some deceptively crisp boxing, having trained under Ray Longo for many years on the art, and his world-class BJJ skills, which should make him a fight-ender no matter where this bout takes place. Trigg has crippled an opponents game plan before with his combination of fundamental boxing and wrestling skills, but it's difficult to say who will have the advantage here, standing or on the mat. While Trigg has out-boxed foes in the past, he doesn't bring a great deal of power to bear, and I think that will be an issue, as the strong inside striking of Serra could wilt Trigg quickly. Also, Trigg has a history of getting caught in submissions on the mat, and while Serra isn't exactly a submission wizard, he does have a few tricks up his sleeve, and could do Trigg some harm if he managed to sweep to top position, or land his own takedown.

Betting Odds:

Matt Serra -130
Frank Trigg EV

This fight is a close one, no matter how you slice it. What Serra does have that gives him an advantage here is an ability to finish the fight anywhere, while Trigg isn't likely to be able to out-box Serra or submit him. Considering Trigg's size and wrestling ability, there's a strong chance he can outwork Serra on the mat and take this to a split or unanimous decision. In my opinion, this one isn't worth putting money on unless you can find solid underdog odds, due to the possibility of a split decision.

Fantasy Pick: Matt Serra via 3rd round submission (choke) (split) or decision (straight)

While Serra isn't the strongest finisher against this level of competition, he does have the ability to throw up a triangle from bottom and work for an armbar on Trigg if he isn't careful in top position. Trigg might surprise us with his ability to keep Serra busy standing, and work his wrestling with good timing to steal a decision as well. Depending on how many people are taking Serra for this one, you might want to consider taking Trigg via decision and try to sneak under the radar with some points.

pauloMike "Quick" Swick vs. Paulo Thiago: Since Paulo Thiago announced his grand entrance into the UFC, with a blistering knockout of former title challenger Josh Koscheck, the boys at AKA have been gunning for him. After Thiago's loss to Jon Fitch via decision, and a win over Jacob Volkmann, he was going to have to prove himself once again in a bout with Koscheck. Fate intervened though, and Thiago finds himself facing the only AKA member he hasn't fought yet, in Mike "Quick" Swick. Swick is coming off a disappointing loss to Dan Hardy and will want to bounce back into the thick of things here, but has a rough test ahead of him with Thiago. While Jon Fitch was able to out-grapple Thiago for the majority of their match, Swick doesn't have the same wrestling or submission grappling pedigree as his brother-in-arm, and won't have such an easy time of controlling Thiago on the mat. This leaves Swick to face Thiago on the feet and in the clinch, which is where he was able to ultimately beat Koscheck. The real issue here is with Swick and his mental game, as he not only tends to fall apart in tough matches, but also doesn't deal well with losses. In a fight where he'll have to scrap for every inch of breathing room, this might be too much for his psyche to bear. In a very tough fight, I feel Thiago makes the ground fight too dangerous for Swick to risk and turns this into a boxing match, using superior punching skill and strong wrestling to dictate the fight and wear Swick down.

Betting Odds:

Paulo Thiago -130
Mike Swick EV

This is a very even match-up in many ways, as both men have KO power and a willingness to exchange. On the mat, this should be all Thiago though, as his BJJ is some of the best at Welterweight, and Swick doesn't have the grappling skills to execute a game plan against him. With both men having punching power, this is a risky one to bet on, but Thiago's ability to finish on the mat makes him a slight favorite in my book, and a strong bet if he's a heavy underdog like I imagine he might be.

Fantasy Pick: Paulo Thiago via 3rd round submission (choke) (split) or Decision (straight)

Thiago's real fight ender here might not be his punching power, but his choke attempts from clinch and inside his guard. Swick hasn't tangled with a grappler of Thiago's skill in his MMA career, and it's a bit question mark as to how he'll handle that. While I think Thiago will work the striking and ground control for a decision, the chance that Swick falls into a guillotine or anaconda choke are fairly high, the more he spends time on the mat with Thiago.

maiaDamien Maia vs. Dan Miller: BJJ superhero, Damien Maia, was steadily climbing the ladder in the Middleweight division, when he was unceremoniously smacked down by Nate Marquardt with a single blow. This left Maia scrambling to reestablish himself, and he finds himself opposite Dan Miller, who himself recently suffered an embarrassing loss, when he was pinned under Chael Sonnen for three rounds; unable to execute any offense. With that in mind, you can expect this to be a strong effort by both men, and maybe the fight of the night. Everyone knows Maia is unstoppable on the ground, and while Miller is generally regarded as a murderous grappler, he really can't afford to play Maia's game. The big question is if Miller can beat Maia standing, but do so in such a way that he avoids getting sucked into a ground fight that he likely can't win. When you unload with hands, it leaves openings for a determined grappler to take you down, and against Maia, this is doubly dangerous, as using a sprawl can't even help you avoid his grappling. While Miller does bring punching power to this fight, he's going to have a difficult time using it without getting taken to the mat, and what that leaves to Miller is a fifteen minute boxing match with no mistakes. Don't count on him being able to keep his game perfect, as eventually he leaves himself open and has to fight for his life on the mat.

Betting Odds:

Damien Maia -260
Dan Miller +200


No matter how you slice it, Maia should be a strong favorite in this fight. The only two avenues Miller has for victory are a knockout, which isn't likely to happen, and a conservative boxing/wrestling match, where he'll have to remain perfect in his execution to avoid getting subbed or swept by the BJJ ace. The odds are not good for him here and Maia should be a strong single bet or parlay player in your gambling endeavors.

Fantasy Pick: Damien Maia via 3rd round submission (choke) (split scoring) or via 1st round submission (choke) (straight scoring)

The finish to this fight is a bit tricky, as Miller does have submission defenses that could keep him safe, relatively speaking, for the entire fight. I feel time will eventually catch up to Miller and Maia will sink an RNC in this fight, but the round is tough to pick out. For split scoring, consider the possibility that this fight goes late with an eventual victory in the 3rd round, or a decision for Maia. Otherwise, with Miller's general all-or-nothing pace, count on him being too impressed with an early guillotine attempt, losing it, and getting triangled in a transition, all in the span of the first round.

macJustin Buchholz vs. Mac Danzig: You'd be hard-pressed to find two men in the UFC roster that need a win more than Mac Danzig and Justin Buchholz. Justin Buchholz, 1-3 in the UFC, holds his sole victory over fan favorite Corey Hill, in a fight he was losing until he managed to lock in an RNC during a scramble. Since then he's lost to Terry Etim, despite nearly stopping him in the first round, and to Jeremy Stephens via cut in the first round. Mac Danzig, 1-3 in the cage after winning TUF 6, holds a win over Mark Bocek, but has lost three straight to Clay Guida, Josh Neer and Jim Miller. Both men are likely a loss away from being thrown back to the minor leagues, and will need to give it their all here, making this a particularly vicious fight. While Danzig holds the advantage on the mat, it's unlikely he can get the much larger Buchholz down there with any consistency, and has rarely used his ground game offensively in his career. This leaves a bloody striking bout, which both men are well-prepared for. Buchholz will enjoy a significant height and reach advantage here, but Danzig is, hands down, the better striker and can work from the inside with leg kicks, dirty boxing, and powerful looping punches. I don't feel either man has enough of a power edge to take out the other, but over the course of the fight, I think Danzig inflicts the better strikes, controls the pace, and out-works Buchholz for the win.

Betting Odds:

Mac Danzig -150
Justin Buchholz +110


Danzig brings an advantage everywhere in this fight, except in the size department, where Buchholz enjoys a hefty reach and height advantage. This is rarely enough to win someone a fight, especially if they don't have high-level striking skills to make the most of their length, but there is a possibility of a decision from a larger volume of shots from the outside, and an impression of control with the judges. Also, Buchholz does bring some KO power to this fight, that could win him points or score an upset KO over Danzig. While I feel Danzig has this fight more often than not, don't sleep on Buchholz to put up a fight.

Fantasy Pick: Mac Danzig via Decision

Danzig has the potential to finish this anywhere, but Buchholz is a tough fighter, and with Danzig working to get inside on him for the entire fight, I don't believe the clock will be on his side. While Danzig could win every round, sealing the deal in five minutes might be a stretch, as he spends precious time working past Buchholz long limbs and footwork.

noverRob "The Saint" Emerson vs. Phillipe Nover:
It's sad to see someone with so much potential not be able to execute in their fight career, and Phillipe Nover knows all too well about this. Between fainting before the TUF 8 try-outs, being beaten by Efrain Escudero for the contract in a huge upset, losing due to premature stoppage against Kyle Bradley, and finally, having a seizure before his bout with Sam Stout, Nover has a lot to prove in this fight. While his talent is undeniable, his mental and physical issues seem to really affect this, and this is where a hard-nosed veteran like Rob Emerson can make a name for himself. Emerson might not have the best record inside the octagon, but he's in the fight until the final bell, and that could be a nightmarish situation for Nover if he isn't 100% into this fight. On pure skill levels and physical ability, Nover trumps Emerson across the board, but fighting is much more mental than physical, and that is where Nover might lose this fight.

Betting Odds:

Phillipe Nover -125
Rob Emerson -110


If Nover's mental state was solid coming into this, it would be easy money as far as I'm concerned. But with the situation like it is, one has to put serious though into if they're willing to lay money down on this fight. If Nover comes in and is mentally destroyed before the fight starts, Emerson can easily pummel him to a bloody decision, but if Nover comes in with a vengeance, he's likely to tear Emerson apart. I'd personally avoid this one unless you can find odds in the range of +140 or so for either fighter, or possibly +110 for Nover, as anything can happen out there.

Fantasy Pick: Phillipe Nover via Decision

Again, assuming Nover comes into this ready to bang, I feel he could finish the fight anywhere. Emerson is notoriously difficult to put away though, and I feel Nover should be able to do just enough in every realm of the fight to take at least two rounds from Emerson.

melvinMelvin Guillard vs. Ronys Torres: This is highlight reel fight waiting to happen, when Melvin Guillard brings his thunderous fists to bare against the savage BJJ of Ronys Torres. Torres has been waiting to make his debut for some time, but injury after injury forced him out of cards and away from a debut fight with Guillard. Guillard was forced to move on and face Nate Diaz, but after losing the bout, it set up a chance for Torres to get into the thick of things. This is the most competitive fight of the card, as both men can and will end this in the first round. Guillard brings some of the fastest hands at Lightweight, and has plenty of striking power to go along with it; making him a dangerous fight for anyone in the division. What Torres brings into this is a high-level BJJ game focused on relentless top game domination and takedowns, which has seen him through fourteen matches. No matter how you slice it, this ends early and decisively.

Betting Odds:

Melvin Guillard -120
Ronys Torres -120


This comes down to the takedown, and whether or not Torres can land it and submit Guillard, before Guillard has a chance to drop him with punches. I can't give a solid answer either way, as both men are dangerous in their respective realms, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either guy take it that night. An underdog bet of +140 or better is money well spent.

Fantasy Pick: Melvin Guillard via 1st round TKO

This is really a coin toss, as Torres is just as likely to land a sub as Guillard a punch. Considering most fantasy games have a qualifier for submissions, the safer pick in those situations is a TKO for Guillard. If you have your heart set on Torres, taking him by armbar is the best chance of big points.

davisPhil Davis vs. Brian Stann: Brian Stann has apparently become the welcoming committee of the Light Heavyweight division, despite winning his last match against Rodney Wallace; a UFC newcomer. Stann's next opponent will be a very similar fighter in wrestler and submission grappling champion Phil Davis, who brings a short MMA resume, but a ton of talent to the cage. While I really like Stann, as a personality, solider and fighter, he was thrown into the deep end when the WEC dissolved, and is starting to show that with his inability to unload on lower level opponents. Unfortunately, Phil Davis isn't someone you want to have a long match with, and considering the problems Stann had with Rodney Wallace, he's going to have a very hard fight here. While Wallace was able to score seven takedowns in their fight, Stann was able to work his way back up from all of them. With Davis, he's facing someone with a well-versed submission grappling base, and the chances of Stann popping up from Davis' smothering top game are less than hopeful. Unless Stann can out-muscle and pummel Davis standing, he's going to have a long night fighting for position against a very sound grappler in Davis.

Betting Odds:

Phil Davis -130
Brian Stann EV


Davis comes into this match with a lot of hype, so I have no idea where the betting line will end up. Considering Stann's inability to pull the trigger in the cage in the UFC, this leaves him in a poor position trying to take on a highly talented grappler like Davis, as his ability to finish the fight will be what saves him from a loss from a superior grappler. One lesson I've learned in betting on the UFC, is never to bet against a newcomer, as you simply don't know what kind of gains they've made since scoring a high-profile contract. This is a lesson you should take to heart here and while you might not want to drop money on Davis, you definitely don't want to trust your bankroll with Stann in this one.

Fantasy Pick: Phil Davis via Decision

Davis has shown an ability to finish, although he's still developing in the MMA world. His finishes are all against inferior opposition though, and if Stann has anything, it's a never-say-die attitude. Davis might be able to dominate the grappling game, but he's not going to have an easy time finishing Stann, putting the end of this fight into the judge's hands.

rollesMustapha Al-Turk vs. Rolles Gracie: It's not often that a fighter is given a third chance in the cage, but after Mustapha Al-Turk's unfortunate eye poke loss to Cro-cop, the UFC apparently felt the need to give him another chance. The person they picked for his third fight is no walk in the park though, as he drew UFC newcomer Rolles Gracie, a highly distinguished submission grappler. Gracie only has three MMA fights, but brings a world of grappling experience into this fight, forcing Al-Turk to fight an unfamiliar game if he's hoping to win here. Both men are primarily grapplers, but Gracie is head and shoulders above Al-Turk in terms of grappling prowess, meaning Al-Turk's best chance is to strike with Gracie and hope he's neglected that part of his training for this fight. Neither man appear to have strong striking skills, and sooner or later, this will give way to a ground fight, where Gracie should be able to notch a win via submission.

Betting Odds:

Rolles Gracie -185
Mustapha Al-Turk +140


Al-Turk has very few options in this fight, and aside from knocking Gracie out standing, he really can't hope to compete here. While Al-Turk's top game is fairly strong, Gracie brings far too much experience in no-gi grappling to be stuck underneath Al-Turk, and will eventually sweep to top position or lock up a submission from the bottom. If Gracie's odds are outrageous, I might avoid this based on lack of experience in MMA, but at odds like those posted, he could be a solid player in a parlay.

Fantasy Pick: Rolles Gracie via 3rd round submission (choke) (split) or 2nd round submission (choke) (straight)


Rolles Gracie has a preference for RNCs, but he may have to take what he can get against a monster like Al-Turk. I don't see Al-Turk being able to finish this fight from top unless his ground and pound can seal the deal, and if Gracie is in top position once, this is likely over. I think Gracie can take top position on Al-Turk in a sweep or scramble, and ultimately land an arm triangle or armbar before the end of the fight. With split scoring though, I'd consider taking the third round finish, as Al-Turk could stall this fight standing and in the clinch.

chrisTim Hague vs. Chris Tuchscherer: In another affair designed to thin the herd, Tim Hague and Chris Tuchscherer will fight to see who gets to remain on the UFC roster, and who gets to go back to their respective regional circuits. Both men had hard losses in their last fights, with Hague suffering a seven second KO delivered by Todd Duffee and Tuchscherer suffering a massive groin kick, followed by an even more massive head kick against Gabriel Gonzaga. I have to say, this fight is likely to remain a dark match, as neither guy bring much in the way of finishing skills against higher level opponents, and I'd expect this to end up as a clinchfest against the fence for most of the fight.

Betting Odds:

Chris Tuchscherer -125
Tim Hague -110


Hague brings a slight edge in striking ability here, while Tuchscherer has strong wrestling skills, and is used to dealing with larger guys. I wouldn't feel safe with a bet on either guy though, as gas tanks and game plans are the two biggest deciding factors for this fight, as well as both men's weakest point in their fight game. I give Tuchscherer a slight edge as far as his ability to control this fight, but even so, stay away from wagers here.

Fantasy Pick: Chris Tuchscherer via Decision.

In what I feel will be a lackluster clinch grappling battle, Tuchscherer has the strong wrestling and is used to dealing with large, strong guys like Hague. It might not be pretty, but I think he gets the better of the takedowns and positioning on the fence, to take a less-than-memorable decision.

Thanks for reading!

This article appears in it's original format at www.mmamafia.net, which is the home of Mike Hammersmith's MMA Breakdowns.

This article can also be found, in part, at www.cageplay.com. Cageplay is a completely free MMA Fantasy game, and one of the best on the net. Be sure to sign up and put your fake money down on these fights!

This article is also found at www.mmasucka.com, which is a fine new website out of Canada. There are always several new interviews with top fighters on the site, so be sure to check it out.

Last but not least, I'm featured at www.mmamoneyline.com in a Pro's Pick section, representing the MMA Mafia. The site features a collection of betting odds, as well as expert gambling advice for MMA. Don't drop a cent on the fights without looking into what MMA Moneyline has to say.


  Mike Hammersmith
  Ranked #1 at cageplay.com 2009
  Represents MMA Mafia in the "Pro's Pick" section at mmamoneyline.com
  Follow Mike Hammersmith on Twitter Follow Mike on twitter

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Forum Posts
Re: UFC 109: Relentless - BreakDown, Betting Odds & Predictions
Jan 23 2010 18:17:09
Wow. All same picks except Coleman and Buttholz. I see Coleman taking advantage of this opportunity and actually out-wrestling Handy. I see Mac as a turd.
#23578
Re: UFC 109: Relentless - BreakDown, Betting Odds & Predictions
Jan 23 2010 20:02:03
Gsquat wrote:
Wow. All same picks except Coleman and Buttholz. I see Coleman taking advantage of this opportunity and actually out-wrestling Handy. I see Mac as a turd.

Blasphemy! Mac's my fuckin boy...

I agree with pretty much everything too... I don't know why everyone's over-lookin paulo thiago....
#23579
Re: UFC 109: Relentless - BreakDown, Betting Odds & Predictions
Jan 24 2010 04:17:01
Dah. Nevermind. I'm picking Swick via Decision.
#23622


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