StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds

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Written by Mike Hammersmith

Saturday, 16 January 2010 07:22

StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds

Strikeforce leaves the West Coast and visits beautiful Miami Florida for their next fight card, featuring a ton of local talent and some exciting competitors from overseas. Our main event features fighting machine Nick Diaz taking on Lithuanian striker Marius Zaromskis for the vacant Strikeforce Welterweight title. Diaz has fought at a wide range of weight classes lately, but is most at home at Welterweight, and will look to use his myriad of skills against the lethal striking of Zaromskis. Zaromskis is no pushover though, and has flattened several opponents lately who

might have thought they could impose their game plans on him. In a woman's title bout, 145lb Champion Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos will defend her title for the first time against Dutch kickboxer and grappler Marloes Coenen. Santos is possibly the most dominant female fighter in the sport's history, but Coenen brings years of experience and a strong will to win into this match, making it a must-see. Also, in a guaranteed dynamite bout, Melvin Manhoef will face "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler in a fight unlikely to make it past the two minute mark. Both men have built their careers off of unbelievable punching power and a willingness to go toe-to-toe with anyone, and this will be a mighty test for both men. All this, plus the debut of Herschel Walker, a bout with Bobby Lashley, and a slew of undercards await us, so read up on the bouts, bankrupt the casinos with the aid of my betting odds, and dominate the net with my fantasy MMA picks.

Nick Diaz vs. Marius Zaromskis for the Strikeforce Welterweight Championship: This is a fight I'd never considered a possibility, as Zaromskis was completely off the radar a year ago, and Diaz has been busy fighting catchweight bouts, but here we are with a very interesting match-up on our hands. Diaz obviously brings world-class BJJ to this bout, along with his unorthodox boxing style, which has flustered and dropped many upper tier fighters. Zaromskis brings in a devastating striking game that he's just recently been able to bring to the world stage after a career studded with brutal knockout wins in small shows. This fight is a lot closer than people may think it is, as Zaromskis brings KO power in absolutely everything he throws, and Diaz has shown a tendency to eat far too many shots in his career. The key here will be if Diaz can take this to the mat off of a kick, or work his boxing at range to avoid Zaromskis power shots, as otherwise, he might be in for a long fight. I think this match should be fairly even in terms of striking, until Diaz can attain a dominant position and submit Zaromskis.

Betting Odds:

Nick Diaz -130
Marius Zaromskis EV

Zaromskis is a fighter I would put into a particular category I call "wrecking balls", meaning they hit so tremendously hard that you need to apply special odds to their fights. In fights involving guys like this, I never give a favorite more than -150 against them, as the potential of knockout is far too high. I think Diaz has the boxing acumen and obviously the grappling skills to put Zaromskis away if given the opportunity, but he'll be dodging bullets the entire time, and it only takes one shot to end a fight. That, combined with Diaz history of cuts and of dropping his defenses at inappropriate times, makes this a compelling dog bet for Zaromskis if you can find strong underdog odds for him.

Fantasy Picks: Nick Diaz via 2nd round Submission (choke)

This fight could be all over the place, and nailing down a round and method isn't easy. I feel Diaz will be cautious on the feet in the first round and work conservative grappling, while avoiding Zaromskis power, and may eventually get his timing and manage to take him down in the second round. This could turn into a long fight if Diaz can't do this though, and decisions are seldom kind to the Diaz brothers due to their lackluster defensive skills and pitter-pat boxing style. With that in mind, you might want to bite the bullet and consider taking Zaromskis via TKO, as it's realistically his only method of victory outside of a decision.

Women's 145lb Champion Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos vs Marloes Coenen: To say the hand-made 145lb Women's Division isn't competitive would be a gross understatement, considering the lion's share of talented women fight at 125lbs and 135lbs. Surprisingly enough, Strikeforce wisely picked up one of the few women fighters on the market that's at least marginally at Santos level in Marloes Coenen, a talented muay thai kickboxer with a deceptively dangerous ground game. This isn't to say that she has much of a shot in this fight, as this is truly a division made up for extraordinarily large fighters; Santos and Gina Carano. While Coenen brings in powerful striking for the average female fighter, Santos hits like an average male Featherweight, and that is a huge disparity in power. Coenen's only real shot here is from her back if she can catch an armbar during Santos determined ground and pound, but the window of opportunity there is slim indeed. Despite Coenen's best efforts, except here to be unable to make it out of the first round after Santos pounds her on the mat.

Betting Odds:

Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos -400
Marloes Coenen +300

You'll be lucky to find odds like this, as I predict Santos will likely be around -600 to -800 when this fight happens. Aside from a flukish bottom game submission, Coenen doesn't have a shot in this fight, as she doesn't pack the firepower to floor Santos, or the chin to absorb her counter-shots. Santos is certainly defeatable, but Coenen just isn't the one to do it.

Fantasy Picks: Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos via 3rd round TKO (split scoring) or 1st round TKO (straight scoring)

While Coenen is out-matched here, she is rather strong defensively and this fight could be drawn into deep water, as Santos tends to turn down the intensity after the first few minutes if she doesn't get the desired result. While I think a first round finish is well within Santos capability, it could be worth the gamble of taking a 3rd round TKO in split scoring, just in case this ends up as a lop-sided decision.

"Ruthless" Robbie Lawler vs. Melvin Manhoef: Anyone who likes highlight knockouts and slugfests knows who these two men are, and the fact they'll be facing each other on American soil is an amazing thing in and of itself. Robbie Lawler brings in years of destructive striking talent, as well as a time-tested chin, and has only once been out-gunned in the striking department, against a surprising Welterweight foe in Nick Diaz. Manhoef has made a career of shattering fighters early, packing his resume with twenty 1st round stoppages; six of which took place in the first minute of the fight. This amazing ability on the feet is coupled with one of the worst ground games in a fighter with this much experience, and this is the only avenue fighters have had success against Manhoef in nearly six years. This fight really comes down to Lawler and whether or not he's willing to swallow his pride and use a smart game plan in taking Manhoef down and beating him on the mat, as this is not a good fight for Lawler standing. As likable as Lawler is, I don't think he's willing to go that route, sound as it may be, and will likely end up on the wrong end of a left hook midway through the first round.

Betting Odds:

Melvin Manhoef -150
Robbie Lawler +110

It's hard to imagine a situation where this doesn't end up in a knockout, and I don't think Manhoef is the one going to sleep on this night. Of the two though, Manhoef has been knocked out before against hard strikers, and Lawler does have the puncher's chance to put his fist down the pipe and floor Manhoef in this fight. I feel Lawler's best chance is on the mat here, as there's no way he hasn't picked up wrestling in his many years training with Matt Hughes, and Manhoef's takedown defense has never been solid. Failing this, I can't give Lawler better than +110 to land on Manhoef before Manhoef lands on him.

Fantasy Picks: Melvin Manhoef via 1st round TKO.

No real explanation needed here. Manhoef ends fights in the first, and will do it the only way he knows how.

Jimmy Ambriz vs. Bobby Lashley: In one of two incredibly useless fights on this card, top-notch wrestler and MMA prospect, Bobby Lashley, will take on Jimmy Ambriz, a journeyman fighter who makes a living off of short notice match-ups. Granted, Ambriz is a step up from Lashley's previously announced opponent, but brings nothing to this fight but a puncher's chance. Lashley should have no trouble putting this fight on the mat and getting a submission very quickly.

Betting Odds:

Bobby Lashley -800
Jimmy Ambriz +550

I'm being perfectly honest when I say I'm being conservative with this, as I'm sure the actual lines will be around -1200 or worse. Ambriz brings basically nothing to the table and won't be walking away from this one a victor under any circumstances.

Fantasy Picks: Bobby Lashley via 1st round submission (strikes)

This ends early, although the nature of finish could be anything. Against someone like Ambriz, who fights for a paycheck, I think it's likely he takes a few punches from side control and taps out, making this a submission in most fantasy games. A TKO or submission (choke) is just as likely, but very few people pick submission (strikes) in these games, and it could net you points otherwise lost.

Greg Nagy vs. Herschel Walker: This being the other useless fight on the card, 47 year old Herschel Walker will make his combat sports debut, taking on 1-1 Greg Nagy. While one has to respect Walker for her skills and athleticism across multiple sports in his youth, at his age, and with no legitimate fight experience, this is a joke of a fight. Footage of Nagy is impossible to come by, but Walker was kind enough to hold an open workout to show off what he'd picked up at American Kickboxing Academy, in preparation for his first fight. While his striking wasn't the worst I've seen in my life, the rule of thumb with novice fighters is that you're about half as good in a fight as you are in the gym. Considering Nagy has two fights under his belt, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here and say he's got at least an idea of how to do a takedown and throw a straight punch. Just the fact Walker is a massive man and 47 years old, I'm willing to bet his gas tank can't handle any amount of pressure in this bout, and he falls apart if this reaches the second round. In all, I have to side with Nagy to work a smarter game plan and out-perform Walker in this fight.

Betting Odds:

Greg Nagy -125
Herschel Walker -110

I haven't a clue where the betting odds will be on this, but I think Nagy should have a slight advantage in age and experience. Let's hope people get behind Walker and drive this line skyward, so we can sneak a dog bet with Nagy come fight time.

Fantasy Picks: Greg Nagy via decision

No way of knowing how this ends, but I don't believe either man has the skill to hurt the other at this point in their careers. That leaves a long match, and I have to give Nagy the advantage for experience and age, allowing him to control the striking and/or ground bout for a decision win.

Jay Hieron vs. Joe "Diesel" Riggs: Two Welterweights making waves in Strikeforce, Jay Hieron will tangle with Joe "Diesel" Riggs in what could be the sleeper fight of the night. Hieron is a very underrated fighter, and has worked his way up the ladder for years, with his latest fight a decisive win over former TUF Middleweight Jesse Taylor. Riggs ups-and-downs, both in his career and personal life, are well documented, but he comes into this fight in high spirits and riding a four fight win streak with victories over Phil Baroni and Luke Stewart. Depending on Hieron's fame of mind, this could be a short fight, as both men have heavy hands and like to throw. This is an area Riggs has a distinct advantage in though, and I feel Hieron will be the smarter fighter and work towards putting this on the mat, where his wrestling is far superior to that of Riggs. In a competitive bout, Hieron does just a little more than Riggs everywhere to take a decision win.

Betting Odds:

Jay Hieron -185
Joe Riggs +140

Hieron has an advantage in wrestling, but Riggs has brutal KO power and is known to stun opponents on the mat with his ground and pound, or with his solid boxing skills. If Riggs comes in as a heavy underdog, he's certainly worth a bet that he lands on the sometimes suspect chin of Hieron, but otherwise Hieron should be a strong player on your wager sheet.

Fantasy Picks: Jay Hieron via decision

Riggs has holes in his game that could certainly be exploited by Hieron, but overall Hieron tends to be a conservative fighter, and he'll need to be careful to not misstep around the powerful Riggs. While this could end early, I think Hieron does enough to with a clear decision with his strong top control and defensive striking skills.

Pablo Alfonso vs. Marcos Da Matta: Another dark match well worth seeing for grappling purists, accomplished BJJ no-gi grappler, Pablo Alfonso, will take on ATT instructor, ADCC Veteran, and former World BJJ Champion, Marcos Da Matta. If you think Alfonso's resume looks a little small compared to Da Matta's, you're right, and that's what seals the deal in the fight. Da Matta brings years more experience and far better technical skills over Alfonso, allowing him to control this fight to the end.

Betting Odds:

Marcos Da Matta -150
Pablo Alfonso +120

Da Matta should be a strong favorite here, but with limited activity on Da Matta's part, and the pace Alfonso likes to keep, this could wear on Da Matta and cause him to slip or gas out late in the fight. I feel Da Matta controls from the top for the majority of the fight and should avoid the aforementioned pitfalls, and at these odds, he makes a solid bet.

Fantasy Picks: Marcos Da Matta via decision.

When two high-level BJJ fighters square off, it often breaks down into a war of transitions. Considering Da Matta is the more decorated of the two and with more gi-based experience, he should be able to get the takedowns and hold position better than Alfonso, walking away with a decision win.

This article appears here at www.mmamafia.net as the original home of Mike Hammersmith's MMA Breakdowns.

You can also find this article, in part at www.cageplay.com, which is the best MMA fantasy site on the net, and completely free. Come check it out and see if you can roll with the big boys there.

This article also appears at www.mmasucka.com, which is a fine Canadian site representing the North of North America. There's always an interview or two with your favorite fighters, so check it out.

Finally, check out www.mmamoneyline.com, where I appear in the Pro's Pick section, representing MMA Mafia. MMA Moneyline is, hands down, the best MMA gambling site on the net and comes highly recommended.

Mike Hammersmith
Ranked #1 at cageplay.com 2009
Represents MMA Mafia in the "Pro's Pick" section at mmamoneyline.com

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JakeIce

Re: StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 17 2010 02:43:14

Nice picks Mike, well done.

The Ambriz/Lashley fight should not happen in my opinion. I respect all fighters but there is no glory in matching these two up. It does nothing for Lashley and is just an easy paycheck for Abriz.

I'm rooting for Lawlor but Manhoef is monster. Its gonna end in KO either way

#23206

Mike Hammersmith

Re: StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 17 2010 06:37:51

You should have read what I said about Lashley's fight with Banks. Ambriz is a step up, and considering how poor he generally fairs, that saying a lot.

I think Strikeforce is leery of what happened with EXC and Kimbo Slice, and are trying to protect Lashley as much as they can. The thing is, like Kimbo, it's going to backfire eventually and he'll have to fight legit contenders without any real experience, because he only ever fights cans.

#23226

JakeIce

Re: StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 17 2010 06:55:03

Mike Hammersmith wrote:
You should have read what I said about Lashley's fight with Banks. Ambriz is a step up, and considering how poor he generally fairs, that saying a lot.

I think Strikeforce is leery of what happened with EXC and Kimbo Slice, and are trying to protect Lashley as much as they can. The thing is, like Kimbo, it's going to backfire eventually and he'll have to fight legit contenders without any real experience, because he only ever fights cans.

Exactly, if I were Lashley I would be asking for better competition, this does absolutely nothing for him in the eyes of the fans that really follow the sport. I'm not saying they need to throw him in the deep end but he has enough experience now to atleast take on a challenge. Shit like this makes me root for the poor underdog.

So its official, if this fight happens, I'm taking Ambriz!!

#23228

Kracker_Jap

Re:StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 17 2010 18:54:11

You can check out how Mike is doing vs the other pro pickers here @ mmamoneyline.com/the-pros-picks

#23244

BaDaBinG

Re: StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 18 2010 01:13:03

Mike Hammersmith wrote:
You should have read what I said about Lashley's fight with Banks. Ambriz is a step up, and considering how poor he generally fairs, that saying a lot.

I think Strikeforce is leery of what happened with EXC and Kimbo Slice, and are trying to protect Lashley as much as they can. The thing is, like Kimbo, it's going to backfire eventually and he'll have to fight legit contenders without any real experience, because he only ever fights cans.

Let him fight a good HW, even if he loses he can say Im new at it and I will improve. Better than getting KO by some C level fighter.

#23281

JakeIce

Re: StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 18 2010 01:42:54

BaDaBinG wrote:
Mike Hammersmith wrote:
You should have read what I said about Lashley's fight with Banks. Ambriz is a step up, and considering how poor he generally fairs, that saying a lot.

I think Strikeforce is leery of what happened with EXC and Kimbo Slice, and are trying to protect Lashley as much as they can. The thing is, like Kimbo, it's going to backfire eventually and he'll have to fight legit contenders without any real experience, because he only ever fights cans.

Let him fight a good HW, even if he loses he can say Im new at it and I will improve. Better than getting KO by some C level fighter.

Exactly! I wouldn't think less of him for losing to better competition, however I will if he keeps fighting cans. I know its not all his choice but he does have a say in it.

#23288

Bobbydoomocculta

Re: StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 18 2010 02:55:53

I actually got a phonecall from strikeforce a couple of months ago offering me a fight with Lashley...

#23292

JakeIce

Re: StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 18 2010 03:06:04

Bobbydoomocculta wrote:
I actually got a phonecall from strikeforce a couple of months ago offering me a fight with Lashley...

Thats not what you told me. You said that Strikeforce called you and asked you to be a tampon for Cris Cyborg.....

#23294

thevoodooninja

Re: StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 18 2010 03:29:20

Bobbydoomocculta wrote:
I actually got a phonecall from strikeforce a couple of months ago offering me a fight with Lashley...

u should take it and showcase ur new JJ skills

#23296

Bobbydoomocculta

Re: StrikeForce MIAMI - BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 18 2010 03:40:10

thevoodooninja wrote:
Bobbydoomocculta wrote:
I actually got a phonecall from strikeforce a couple of months ago offering me a fight with Lashley...

u should take it and showcase ur new JJ skills

haha... I want to... I think Lashley's dodgin me...

#23297

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