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 WEC 46 VARNER vs HENDERSON BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds by Mike Hammersmith.It took a year to sort out the Lightweight title mess, but as of January 10th, we'll have a Unified Champion in the WEC, as Jamie "The Worm" Varner takes on Interim Champion "Smooth" Benson Henderson. Varner is one of the least cared-for champions in MMA, and many will tune in just to see if Benson, a much more personable figure, can rip the belt out of Varner's hands. Also on the card, hometown hero and Former Featherweight Champion, Uriah "The California Kid" Faber, will make his long-awaited return to the cage, and take on the very game Rafael Assuncao in a fast-paced and super-technical affair. Newcomers, veterans, and former champions fill this card to the brim with tremendous talent and competitive fights, so read up on the bouts, break the casino's bankroll with my betting odds, and take home a championship or two with my fantasy picks.On a side note, www.cageplay.com is starting their season with this event, so if you haven't signed up yet, now's the time. It's my favorite fantasy game on the web, and as dual champion of the 2009 season, I'd welcome the competition. Think you can hang with some of the best fantasy players on the web? Sign up and see! Now, onto the fights!  Lightweight Champion Jamie "The Worm" Varner vs. Interim Champion "Smooth" Benson Henderson: The clash of personalities in this fight is almost as exciting as the fight itself, as the cocky and oftentimes overly-dramatic Jamie Varner, will fight to retain his title against the humble and goofy character that is Benson Henderson in this title unification bout. While personalities are polar opposites, both men have their base in wrestling, which should make or break this fight. Varner has the far superior hands, and is capable of leveling Henderson if his wrestling isn't spot on in this bout. On the flipside, Henderson is an accomplished no-gi grappler with vicious submission skills and a punishing top game, which could put Varner into dangerous territory if he can't dictate this fight. The gas tank and wrestling are the two deciding factors in this fight, and I have to give the edge to Henderson in both categories. His shot is one of the slickest I've seen at Lightweight, and he looked good going five rounds in his last bout. While Varner has also gone five rounds in his career, coming off a broken foot and broken hand will have shelved him for some time, and a year of ringrust isn't something you want to bring into a title fight. Although Varner has plenty of chances to take Henderson out early, he'll find victory is a window that will close for him late in the fight if he cardio fails him. In a rollercoaster ride, Henderson takes a decision, and the unified title. Betting Odds: "Smooth" -140 Jamie "The Worm" Varner +110 Henderson has a slight edge here, just in the fact his wrestling is of a comparable level, and he's been active in the entire time Varner has been injured. That isn't to say Varner can't win this, as if his takedown defense is strong enough to turn this into a five round boxing match, Henderson will be ill-equipped to deal with him. Also consider that Varner could potentially gain top position or Henderson, which is an area he seldom finds himself, and we may fight his bottom game isn't half as strong as his top game. Title fights are always a toss-up, and I'd avoid betting on this fight unless you could find odds significantly better than what I've posted. I'd be comfortable with EV or better on Henderson, or +140 or better on Varner. Fantasy Picks: "Smooth" Benson Henderson via decision. Varner is a tough customer, and I can't see him getting caught in too many submissions, considering his own technical grappling abilities. If he falters in this fight, it will be because of his conditioning and or mental game, and I think Henderson will play it safe and take a decision to unify the titles. If you're feeling brave, you could go for a 5th round submission (choke) on split scoring, but decision is the safer play in my mind.  Will Campuzano vs. Coty "Ox" Wheeler: Campuzano had a very rough first fight in the WEC, taking on the bantamweight bruiser Damacio Page in a short and violent affair that ended in a submission loss. That fight didn't truly show what Campuzano is made of though, and this time he draws someone much more manageable in Coty "Ox" Wheeler. Coty Wheeler is no joke either though, and brings in a solid grappling background and years of experience to test the younger Campuzano. This is a very close fight, but Campuzano has a calmness in his grappling, inventive and punishing ground and pound, and devastating KO striking that could put Wheeler to sleep in a hurry. Wheeler on the other hand, needs to relay on his unorthodox submission skills, wrestling and high pace in this one to take a win away from the younger fighter. I give the edge here to Campuzano, based on Wheeler's grappling style, which leaves him exposed to ground and pound, especially when going for ankle locks. Campuzano has solid leglock defense, hits hard enough on the mat to make Wheeler regret the leglock attempts, and in a close fight, that could be all the difference. Betting Odds: Will Campuzano -130 Coty Wheeler EV A very even match, but Campuzano is more likely to stop Wheeler than the other way around, making him a slight betting favorite. This could be an opportunity for some bankroll, as Wheeler will likely come in as a heavy favorite given Campuzano's relative inexperience and with a loss in his first fight in the WEC. Don't believe it though, as Campuzano has a ton of potential, and if he can shine in this fight, should give Wheeler a sound beating. Fantasy Picks: Will Campuzano via 1st round TKO. Campuzano and Wheeler will both come in hard, and that's where this will end early, as Wheeler will be caught standing or on the mat and force a referee stoppage. Wagnney Fabiano vs. Clint Godfrey: After a disappointing loss, and dropping down a weightclass, Wagnney Fabiano will look to make waves at 135lbs, and will take on WEC newcomer Clint Godfrey as his first test. Godfrey comes into the match with a solid record, and a well-rounded arsenal of kicking strikes, wrestling, and submissions, that have made him a terror in the Midwest fight circuits. This is a large jump in competition for him though, and Fabiano has one of the most suffocation top games in BJJ, meaning this fight will be woefully short for Godfrey if he can't avoid Fabiano's mat work. Considering the size advantage Fabiano will enjoy here, I feel he'll have little issue with controlling Godfrey in this match and landing a submission early. Betting Odds: Wagnney Fabiano -300 Clint Godfrey +220  Between Fabiano's punching power and world class top game, there really isn't much Godfrey can do here. The one thing he does have going for him is that, as this is Fabiano's first bout at Bantamweight, Godfrey could attempt to work a fast-paced fight and wear down Fabiano's potentially fragile cardio. This would require him to dodge the bullet for much of the fight, which is a tall order for someone with so little top-shelf fight experience. Fabiano is a strong favorite in this bout and a great addition to a parlay, or strong anchor bet. Fantasy Pick: Wagnney Fabiano via 1st round Submission (choke). I don't see Fabiano giving Godfrey much room, especially after his last bout, where he underestimated a newcomer and paid for it. I think Fabiano gets this to the mat in short order and locks on an arm triangle or RNC early in the first, getting his bantamweight career underway. George Roop vs. Eddie Wineland: A veteran of TUF 8 and a former Champion will face off here, when George Roop takes on Eddie Wineland, in a striker vs. grappler affair. After a disappointing run on TUF 8 and poor showing in UFC, George Roop is down to his proper fighting weight in the WEC, and looking to fight Former Bantamweight Champion Eddie Wineland, who himself is working his way back up the ladder. Wineland is a highly underrated striker with several one-shot knockouts on his record, but he will have his work cut out for him against the wrestling skills of Roop. While Roop was out-wrestled in his Lightweight bouts, fighting opponents who are twenty pounds lighter should give him the ability to shine, and I think he'll be able to do this against Wineland. Unless Wineland can land a knockout blow or use a sprawl to force a stand-up bout, Roop should be able to work this match to the ground and impose his will on Wineland. It might not be pretty, but Roop can outwork Wineland on the mat and take a decision. Betting Odds: George Roop -140 Eddie Wineland +110  Roop should be able to control this fight, but Wineland has a few ways to win this one. While he's not well-known for it, Wineland is a punishing striker who dealt former title challenger Manny Tapia a lop-sided beating on the feet, and has the potential to do this to anyone who can't force a ground battle on him. I'm sure he knows this just as well as I do, and if his sprawl and clinch grappling has improved since his last few outings, Roop could find himself in a world of hurt here. Also, with Roop back to cutting substantial weight for his fights, this could have an adverse effect on his cardio, which could allow Wineland to sneak away with a decision or late fight finish on a winded Roop. These are unlikely scenarios and I feel Roop should have enough of an edge to work Wineland on the mat and impose a game plan, making his a favorite for conservative wagers. Fantasy Picks: George Roop via decision. Wineland doesn't have the best grappling, but he is strong defensively on the mat, and considering Roop's top heavy and conservative approach, I don't see this fight reaching a finish before the judges get involved. Roop taking a decision is the best fantasy pick for large points.  Akitoshi Tamura vs. Charlie Valencia: In one of the most competitive fights of the night, Shooto veteran Akitoshi Tamura will fight Charlie Valencia, one of the longest active fighters in the WEC. Both men have diverse skill-sets, although both are primarily wrestlers, and use that to dictate their own fight games. While I think Valencia has an edge everywhere the fight goes, Tamura has a lightning-fast shot and impregnable submission defenses that should be enough to take this fight, if he can stay out of trouble. Valencia has potential to knock Tamura silly standing, but with a five inch height disadvantage, Valencia will have issues engaging Tamura without opening himself up for takedowns. In a very close fight, I think Tamura controls this bout and makes it a top-positional snoozefest, but notches a win just the same. Betting Odds: Akitoshi Tamura -120 Charlie Valencia -120 Valencia has all the finishes for this fight, but Tamura has the ability to control it if Valencia can't stay off his back. Considering this is a step up in competition for both men, I'd avoid bets on this unless you can find decent underdog lines for either fighter. Fantasy Picks: Akitoshi Tamura via decision. With all things being equal here, Tamura has the most obvious route to victory via decision here. If you're set on taking Valencia, I'd recommend a 3rd round TKO for split scoring, or decision for straight scoring.  Raphael Assuncao vs. "The California Kid" Urijah Faber: Former Featherweight Champion Urijah Faber makes his return after suffering a severely broken hand in his last fight, and will look to reestablish himself as a force in the division. He isn't being given an easy fight to get back on track though, as he'll face off with BJJ wizard Raphael Assuncao, who has several high profile wins on his record, and continues to improve his game in every fight. Assuncao's only real shot in this fight is on the mat, as he simply doesn't have the speed to deal with a whirlwind of offense like Faber, but his fundamental BJJ could cause The California Kid some real issues if he can't use his wild transition skills to avoid danger. This isn't something we're likely to see though, as Assuncao's takedown skills aren't at the level needed to deal with Faber. Assuncao has his work cut out of him here and finding a path to victory is going to be his hardest task. Betting Odds: Urijah Faber -185 Raphael Assuncao +140 No matter how you slice it, Faber is a heavy favorite here, although with a fighter of Assuncao's level, you can never count them out. The two things Assuncao have going for him are surprisingly heavy hands, and a very high level of BJJ, which could get Faber in trouble very quickly. Faber's style is all about transitions and unorthodox angles, but if you can manage to rope off flashy fighters with flowing fundamental grappling skills, they can be set up for the same submissions as anyone else. Faber has found himself in sticky situations in the past with guys like Bibiano Fernandez and Jeff Curran, and Assuncao has the same level of ground skills as those aforementioned fighters. It's a long shot but if Faber comes in as a huge favorite, money on Assuncao could be well worth the investment. Fantasy Pick: Urijah Faber via 3rd round TKO (split scoring) or decision (straight scoring) As with any fight featuring a superbly well-rounded fighter, it's difficult to pin down exactly how this will go. Faber has submission skills, but catching a high level BJJ grappler sleeping is very difficult, especially when he'll be ready for it. This leaves a TKO, but Faber's problem has always been his inability to land KO shots. What I do think could happen is for Faber to catch Assuncao in a bad position on the mat and land enough shots to force the ref to step in, but I feel this will go to decision before Faber has a chance to capitalize on any of Assuncao's mistakes.  Mike Thomas Brown vs. Anthony Morrison: Another Former Featherweight Champion will have another go inside the cage, although Mike Thomas Brown has pulled a new opponent for his first fight since losing the title. Brown will be taking on Anthony Morrison, a tough fighter from the inner city who brings in a ton of athleticism and heart, along with some very heavy hands. This wouldn't be the first time someone shocked the world by coming out of nowhere and crushing a hearty fighter, but you can't ever count on it. Failing a brutal KO, Brown has world class submission and wrestling skills, as well as heavy and accurate hands of his own, and should have no issues with Morrison, tough as he may be. After a fast-paced few minutes of action, Brown will eventually land a heavy shot or take the fight down and finish it before it really starts. Betting Odds: Mike Thomas Brown -300 Anthony Morrison +220 If Morrison didn't have such strong punches, this wouldn't be worth betting on, but no heavy puncher in 4oz gloves is worth passing up if the odds look like this. I couldn't say where the odds will be when the lines are set, but I'm willing to bet Brown will be around -600 or -800, which makes a bet on Morrison to land a haymaker that much more attractive. Fantasy Pick: Mike Thomas Brown via 1st round TKO It's a toss-up whether Brown ends this with a top positional submission or TKO, but with Morrison's unrefined striking, I doubt Brown will have trouble landing a KO blow on the feet, or finishing on the mat with ground and pound.  Bryan Caraway vs. Mark Hominick: After a long layoff, Canadian Mark Hominick will attempt another run in the WEC, hoping to touch up his 0-2 record in the organization. His late replacement opponent will be Bryan Caraway, a wrestler and submission artist out of Victory Athletics, the home of such MMA grappling standouts as Dennis Hallman and Jeff Monson. To say Hominick has a real issue with strong grapplers would be an understatement, and Caraway comes into this fight with everything he'll need to impose his will and win. Hominick does have a superb striking arsenal, and has potential to drop Caraway early if he can keep it standing, but there's no guarantee with the shaky takedown defense of Hominick. Bank on the newcomer having the tools and mindset to make this fight a successful debut. Betting Odds: Bryan Caraway -140 Mark Hominick +110 Having watched Hominick snatch defeat from the jaws of victory a few too many times, I can't take him over any competent wrestler or submission artist, and that's exactly what Caraway is. The odds have potential to be very lopsided towards Hominick in this fight, and this could be a big potential moneymaker on the sportbooks and fantasy games of the world. Fantasy Pick: Bryan Caraway via 3rd round submission (choke) (split) or 1st round submission (choke) (straight) Caraway has the takedowns, control and submissions to finish Hominick on the mat early. Don't count Hominick's ground game out completely though, as he does have decent defenses off his back, so long as he can resist the urge to give his back to an opponent. Hominick could keep this fight interesting if he can keep Caraway on the defensive standing, or rock the wrestler in exchanges, but time should be on Caraway's side and allow him to notch a decision victory or late submission if he can't put it away early.  Mackens Semerzier vs. Deividas Taurosevicius: Mackens Semerzier, a training partner to Former Bantamweight Champion Miguel Torres, burst onto the scene with one of the biggest upsets of the year, submitting Wagnney Fabiano via triangle choke in his debut. We'll now see if lightning to strike twice though, as Semerzier will be facing off against an equally dangerous Deividas Taurosevicius. This fight is a perfect example of why watching a fighter at work is much more important than looking at records. While Semerzier's record is spotless, with his crowning victory being his submission over Wagnney Fabiano, anyone who saw that fight would know why this one is likely a bad match-up for him. While Semerzier deserves all the credit in the world for his victory, he looked very uncomfortable standing, and was bullied to the mat in an instant by Fabiano. Honestly, the submission was more Fabiano's lack of seriousness in the fight than any amazing grappling skills of Semerzier, and we'll come to see what he really has against Taurosevicius. Taurosevicius brings in a BJJ black belt of his own, as well as decent striking skills and strong conditioning, making him a stern test for the up-jumped Semerzier. Betting Odds: Deividas Taurosevicius -220 Mackens Semerzier +180 While MMath might tell you otherwise, Semerzier isn't at the same level as Taurosevicius, and it'll show in this bout. Aside from a possible advantage in the boxing realm for Semerzier, Taurosevicius brings too many skills and too much experience for Semerzier to handle, and he'll find himself on the defensive for the entirety of the fight. Taurosevicius might be under-valued in this fight due to confusion on the exact measure of Semerzier as a fighter. Look to make Taurosevicius part of a strong parlay or singles bet if you find odds like this or better. Fantasy Pick: Deividas Taurosevicius via 3rd round Submission (choke) (split) or 2nd round Submission (choke) (straight) Taurosevicius isn't an aggressive fighter, and that might be Semerzier's saving grace here, as he'll get precious ringtime in and get to work his skills against an expert fighter. Taurosevicius will likely work his still-developing striking game for this fight and some conservative grappling, but don't sleep on him finishing the fight either. I think Taurosevicius will look to wrap this up midway through the fight, but Semerzier could make it difficult to do so and could draw this into a late finish or decision if his own submission game and submission defense can stall out Taurosevicius.  Dave Jansen vs. Kamal Shalorus: In what is likely to be an explosive bout Team Quest's Dave Jansen, will take on Olympic wrestler Kamal Shalorus in a Lightweight tilt. Both men have high-levels of wrestling and naturally heavy hands, that makes them a nightmare to deal with in the cage, and should make for a rugged fight early. Both men have KO power early, but Jansen showed a weak gas tank in his last outing, which could be the killer against someone with the work ethic and high-level wrestling of Shalorus. Once the two men trade blows for a bit, expect the fight to take on a slower pace and for the superior wrestling and conditioning of Shalorus to be the deciding factor in the fight. Betting Odds: Kamal Shalorus -185 Dave Jansen +140 Shalorus brings more to the table in this fight and should be a favorite on the betting lines. The one major issue here is an early KO though, as both men tend to get hit a bit too often, and both men have naturally heavy hands, which could lead to a knockout for either fighter. If Jansen is a major underdog, he could be worth the investment of an underdog bet, as he could find Shalorus' chin early in the matchup. Fantasy Pick: Kamal Shalorus via 3rd round TKO (split) or decision (straight) Both men are gritty fighters, and it's hard to imagine either one falling prey to the other, making a hard-fought decision the most likely outcome. Shalorus has tremendously powerful hands though, and could land strikes on Jansen early, or if his cardio fails, pound him out on the mat in the later part of the fight. A third round TKO makes the most sense with split scoring because of this, although if you're feeling brave, you could bank on it ending in the first as well. Thanks for reading my breakdown for WEC 46! This breakdown appears courtesy of www.mmamafia.net, one of the best MMA communities on the web. I can also be found at www.mmamoneyline.com in the "Pro's Pick" section, representing MMA Mafia as their professional fight analyst. The site contains expert betting analysis and is an invaluable resource for gamblers and fantasy players alike. Also, check out www.cageplay.com, where segments of this breakdown can be viewed. Cageplay is, hands down, the best completely free fantasy site on the net. Test yourself and your MMA knowledge there and see if you have what it takes to win an event, or the entire season.  Mike Hammersmith Ranked #1 at cageplay.com 2009 Represents MMA Mafia in the "Pro's Pick" section at mmamoneyline.com  Follow Mike on twitter
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Re:WEC 46 VARNER vs HENDERSON BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 07 2010 00:16:13 Great break down....
And great new graphic for it |
#22580 |
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Re:WEC 46 VARNER vs HENDERSON BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 07 2010 00:45:26 I love to watch Ben Henderson fight. I just hope he's a little improved on the feet and more active with his GnP on the ground. He should take it though. He's got the athletic ability to be a 155 GSP. I can only hope to see the talent and hard work start to show through. I'll enjoy the Sunday/Monday double header.
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#22587 |
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Re:WEC 46 VARNER vs HENDERSON BreakDown, Predictions & Betting Odds
Jan 07 2010 01:51:24 Good read. I also feel Smooth has the opportunity here. He would make a very good champ.
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#22592 |
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